The Bocker.com

We are on the home stretch people, only three more divisions to go. Today we give you the NL East where both Anthony and I agree there will be a battle for first place. Which teams will duke it out this season? Who will be brining up the rear? Well, you’re just going to have to read on to find out.

Tony: I usually like to snipe at the NL East, both because its fun to call it the “NL Least” and because it’s a regular hobby of Yankees’ fans (of which I am one). Unfortunately for myself, the Yankees Fan, the NL East looks capable of putting out at minimum 2 contending teams in the Mets and the Phillies, with the Braves a possible challenger depending on how the cards fall. Let’s start at the other end of the Eastern universe in Florida and D.C. for some analysis on two of baseball’s worst teams.

I am putting the Florida Marlins in last because I feel as though Washington actually made some steps forward this offseason and they have better pitching (rotation and bullpen combined).

Florida is one franchise that pains the fans of clubs like the Indians, the Cubs and the Orioles, as Florida has twice won World Series since 1997 using the “slash-and-burn” model of team building. That is, build a team up, win to generate moderate short-term interest, then sell off all of the good players for prospects after World Series victory. This tactic has kept the Marlins from being moved out of Miami, even though no one attends their games and markets like Portland and even Brooklyn (a pipe dream locale, but NYC could easily support a third MLB team as the two in town already draw 8 million fans annually) hunger for a team.

Unlike the fire sale following the 1997 Championship, where unloading Al Leiter, Gary Sheffield and Robb Nen netted players like Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and A.J. Burnett, the next sell off after ‘03 did not yield a similar crop harvest. This is expounded upon in great detail in this years edition of Baseball Prospectus (to be honest, I am stealing their premise), but the point is the Marlins did a poor job in getting young talent.

Maybe trading Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera will give the Marlins the ace pitcher and star centerfielder they can build a winner with in Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, but this whole situation is such a mess. Pretty soon, the Marlins will be selling off Hanley Ramirez (a legit GREAT player), Dan Uggla and Josh Willingham for whatever 18 and 19-year-olds other teams are willing to part with.

The best case scenario for Florida is that a new stadium deal can not be reached, the team is moved to Portland, and MLB alters its NL divisions somewhat, pushing the new Portland team to the NL West, the Rockies to the NL Central and the Pirates to the NL East, for sake of geographic sanctity and scheduling logistics.

I’m exasperated after breaking down the Florida team, but James, I think the Nats are finally doing a great job in bringing competitive baseball to The District as they enter 2008 with a few things to be excited about.

Wallace: The Washington Nationals have been a team that I’ve shunned ever since their inception a few years ago. This dislike is based solely on the fact that so called Orioles fans living in D.C. jumped ship once the Nationals came into being, and also their uninspiring uniforms. It has been hard for me to not purchase one of their beautiful script ‘W’ hats, but honestly, how can they have a script ‘W’ be their hat symbol when their jerseys employ boring block lettering. Let’s get this straight team owners, block lettering is always uninspiring. But in recent years the Nationals have been slowly building up a solid team core and with their move into a new stadium this season the future is beginning now. The big off season moves were acquiring Lastings Milledge from the Mets and Elijah Dukes from the “Devil” Rays. Milledge is a top 10 talent who, in my opinion, was never given a chance in NY and then was cast off because of “character issues”. This move will come back to haunt the Mets when Milledge emerges as one of the best young outfielders in baseball and the Mets are hiring a witch doctor to keep Moises Alou’s career going just a few more years. Elijah Dukes had legitimate character problems during his time with the “Devil” Rays, but it still surprised me that Tampa Bay chose to let him, and his boundless talent, go along with Delmon Young in the off-season. In their place the Rays are hoping that some combination of Jonny Gomes or Rocco Baldelli can fill the void. Dukes struggled last season as a rookie but, much like Milledge, he should benefit from playing every day. Throw in Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman and the Nats might have enough to outscore their opponents in the East from time to time.

The real problem for the Nationals comes with their pitching. Their starters are uninspiring, except perhaps for Shawn Hill. At 27 he’s not exactly a prospect, but he was the only pitcher currently in the rotation to have an ERA under 4 last season, and surely that must count for something. Plus I’ve been reading recently about Chad Cordero’s loss of velocity and his lessening skills this season. It’s been enough for me to be annoyed that Anthony convinced me taking the 25 year old closer was worth trading away Franklin Morales. A top 25 pitching prospect, according to Baseball Prospectus, currently on the Colorado Rockies. But hey, maybe I’ll be able to trade Cordero in my fantasy league. Regardless, as a fan you should never be happy when your best pitcher is your closer and even he is being questioned going into the season. The only reason this team won’t finish last is that the Marlins are that bad.

The Philadelphia Phillies came on late last season and knocked the Mets out of the playoffs on their way to a first round exit at the hands of the Colorado Rockies. This off-season the Mets made one big acquisition that should give them the edge over the Phillies, Johan Santana. The Phillies big off-season moves consisted of struggling closer Brad Lidge, to replace senior citizen Tom Gordon, and Geoff Jenkins to replace the departed Aaron Rowand. They also added Pedro Feliz and his 20 home run potential. The fact is that this lineup might be better than their competitors the New York Mets. With returning All-Atars Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, along with Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Jenkins and Feliz, you are looking at an American League lineup on a National League team. The reason I will give the Mets a slight edge this season comes down to pitching.

The Phillies are led by young stud Cole Hamels, who is emerging as one of the best pitchers in the game. But outside of him I have a lot of questions. Brett Myers, in between alleged domestic abuse incidents, yo-yo’d between closing duties and starting last season as manager Charlie Manuel tried to find a spot for him. He was able to post a respectable 4.33 ERA last year and a great 10.9 K/9, but will he be able to fall back into a full time starting role? I say he struggles somewhat. Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton’s careers have seen better days and Kyle Kendrick is a light throwing young pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out. The fact that his ERA was sub-four last season was an aberration. Their bullpen is adequate and probably equal to the Mets, so they have that going for them.

I am going to let Anthony tell you about the Mets and the Braves and I will save my pick for first place until after he breaks down those teams. I am expecting a close race again in the East and, like Anthony says, you can’t discount the Braves. Though the real race should be between the Phillies and the Mets once again. If I had to pick one achilles heel for the Mets it would be their starting pitching. Much like the Phillies they have one stud, Johan Santana, but they also have an emerging ace in John Maine. The problems start when you realize outside of those two their starters are pushing 40 years old, and in the case of Orlando Hernandez, 50. Anthony, why should I pick the Mets to win the division this season when they only made one big move after collapsing at the end of last year?

Tony: How can you cite the achilles heel of the New York Mets as their starting pitching? I’d argue that they have a top-5 rotation. Lets assume Pedro Martinez and El Duque both struggle this year (which is very possible, though I think Pedro has a fair season), they are still going to have super ace Johan Santana, Oliver Perez and John Maine. Maine and Perez are two very good young pitchers and I think both will at least equal what they did last season. Then, the Mets have former stud prospect Mike Pelfrey to slip right in should their be an emergency with Pedro or The Duke. As it stands now, this is one of the Mets biggest strengths, especially considering I believe Pedro will have a pretty good year. Maybe you are citing the 2007 Mets in your assessment, who leaned heavy on Tom Glavine, but with Santana in the fold, the rotation will be aok.