The Bocker.com

After much delay we are back with our baseball preview. So without further ado, here’s Anthony to get things started.

Tony: I think the NL Central is a great microcosm of MLB on the whole. There are the rich teams (Cubs), the young homebred teams (Brewers), the up-and-comers (Reds), the corporate douche bags (Cardinals), the stubborn old guard (The Astros) and the hapless, clueless, winless wonders (Pirates).

If my hypothesis above holds true, it should come to pass that the team to beat is the rich spender, Chicago, followed by the young homebred, Milwaukee. The Reds will keep it interesting though, for well longer than most expect, because I think they will improve from mediocre to not bad this season because of call-ups Joey Votto and eventually Johnny Cueto. Also Homer Bailey will have a better second season.

I do want to get into Milwaukee and Chicago, because those teams have lots of interesting stories and players around going into ‘08, but I want you to start from the basement Jim and tell me why Pirates’ fans an feel hope that they won’t end up in last.

Wallace: It would be nice to say that the Pittsburgh Pirates had a chance to compete this season, but I would only be lying to you if I said so. With a lack of pitching, a meager line up and an overall disinterest shown by the front office, the Pirates are destined for another year of futility. What makes this franchise’s ineptness all the more disappointing is the solid fan base in Pittsburgh that they are losing and probably the nicest baseball stadium in the country that is left half empty for every home game. Out side of Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson and Jason Bay, this is a team of role players who aren’t so much bad players as they are not up to the level of the top teams in the NL Central. Pitching is a mixed bag for the Pirates. The brightest spot in the Pirates rotation last season was the emergence of youngster Tom Gorzelany. His great fastball and above average slider allowed him so post a sub-four ERA and 135 strikeouts last season. At only 25, if he continues to improve he could become the number one starter that the Pirates desperately need. Ian Snell is another young starter with above average stuff who has lowered his ERA and increased his strikeout totals with each year he has pitched. Snell is a smaller pitcher, but he has been durable throughout his young career. After Snell, the drop off is steep. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm are both young but Duke has struggled since his stellar rookie season and is probably a victim of overwork. Maholm is a control pitcher who struggles when he’s not hitting his spots. His lack of a strikeout pitch means that you will see a lot of high scoring games out of him. The Pirates have a young rotation but they have struggled to get runs for their starters and their bullpen has been known to blow what slim leads they have had. There just isn’t enough there to compete and their off season was quiet as usual. The front office just doesn’t seem interested in improving this team at all.

The Houston Astros will be competing with the Pirates for last place this season. Their biggest off season acquisition, Miguel Tejada, was a major player in the Mitchell Report and his preseason has been extremely underwhelming. He has lost the pop in his bat the last few years and his fielding has deteriorated enough to place him in the middle of the pack of shortstops. They have two good veteran hitters in Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman who give them power and RBIs. Rightfielder Hunter Pence is one of the best young hitters in the game who emerged last season as a star. Outside of those three players the Astros don’t have much to offer on offense. Their rotation was one of the worst in baseball last year and only staff ace Roy Oswalt is good enough to be an every day starter. The only thing saving this team from last place this year is the minor league team that the Pirates trot out every day.

Fourth place will most likely be held by the St. Louis Cardinals this season. To be honest this team is very uninteresting and so my analysis is going to be pretty short. They have one of the best players in the game in Albert Pujols and some good hitters like Troy Glaus, Chris Duncan and former pitcher Rick Ankiel, but overall their offense will have trouble keeping up with the Reds, the Cubs and the Brewers. Their pitching is pretty good but now that Chris Carpenter is gone they don’t have a real shut em down pitcher outside of Adam Wainwright. This team is better than the Astros and the Pirates but realistically doesn’t have enough to compete in this improved Central Division.

Anthony, I’ll let you give you more analysis on the top three teams in the NL Central this season.

Tony: Thats a good job James, though I am rooting for the Astros to push the Pirates out of last, simply because of mismanagement in the
organization. Any team who goes from the pennant to the cellar in two years while keeping an ace pitcher (Oswalt) and a great hitter (Berkman) is clearly missing something. Compounding this is an offseason trade for a HGH-tarnished-past-prime Miggy Tejada for 6 PROSPECTS is absurd for a team with no chance to contend.

At the top, the Chicago Cubs have too much talent to lose the central. Even with questions at the closer position (Marmol or Dempster?), the third outfield position (Murton, Pie, Other?) and the adjustment of Konsuke Fukodome to American Baseball (H. Mastui or K. Matsui?), there’s just too many sure things. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Soriano will all continue to be offensive producers and the rotation is plenty strong,
especially with ace Carlos Insano Zambrano. Right now, if the Cubs uncertainties work themselves out, Chicago can win 95 games, but worse case scenario, they still win 85 and likely still win the division.

Second place in the division is actually an interesting race in my opinion, as the Brewers and Reds trot out some of baseball’s best young players to settle next best in the Central.

I am picking the Milwaukee Brewers to finish in second, but I feel as though I am going to regret this pick. Milwaukee has a talented but fragile rotation, a prolific offensive lineup that is absolutely terrible at defense and the remnants of a September collapse hanging over the psyche of a young team. I may be just taking a safe pick by taking Milwaukee, but I think that Fielder and Braun will continue to rake and that Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy and BIll Hall will all bring meaningful contributions. I do have a terrible feeling though, that Yovani Gallardo will not be able to yet carry burden of the ace status, Ben Sheets will again get hurt, Jeff Suppan will again prove that the 2006 post season was an isolated event and Eric Gagne will look more like last year’s Red Sock instead of last year’s Ranger.

I love what the Cincinnati Reds have done organizationally, developing great hitters and pitching prospects in recent seasons. 2008 will be the first season that will prominently feature some of the gems of Cincinnati’s farm, as Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are likely to get everyday spots in the lineup and Johnny Cueto will be given a spot in the rotation. Given that the Reds already have a really good number-2-type starter in Aaron Harang and a solid Bronson Arroyo, these rookies could push the Reds right up the standings. The Reds could have a scary good offense if Votto and Bruce both hit and join Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips and Ken Griffey Jr. (if healthy) has contributors. Why am I not picking them for first? A combination of skepticism and a lack of fortitude. I think the Reds will surely compete next season, but are still too young to be expected to finish second this year.

James, I am understating Milwaukee’s issues and also undercutting the Reds’ chances to contend this season?

Wallace: I think you are just missing it with the Reds and the Brewers Anthony. Both teams are very similar but it comes down to those extra intangibles that make the difference for me. As you may have already guessed I’m picking the Reds to finish ahead of the Brewers and here’s why:

First, let’s start with the Milwaukee Brewers. They have a great middle of the lineup, consisting of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and they fill out their lineup with pretty good hitters from top to bottom. There are a few question marks in my opinion. Will Rickie Weeks get on base enough to warrant the number one spot in the lineup? He struggled batting last year and his walk numbers were a bit low for a leadoff guy. Can Bill Hall live up to his 2006 break out season? Will there be anyone else in the rotation that the Brewers can count on besides Ben Sheets and Yovani Gallardo? Right now their rotation outside of those guys looks a bit slim. The biggest problem I have with the Brewers is their bullpen. They picked up Eric Gagne and David Riske in the offseason and neither of those guys is very dependable in my opinion. Riske had good numbers last year but Gagne absolutely imploded with the Red Sox. Even if the starters pitch well for the Brewers, the bullpen may blow more than their share of games this year. This team could very easily finish in second place this year, but third is more likely where they will stay. The most important thing for them will be taking care of their young ace Yovani Gollardo. They don’t want to overwork him this year at the risk of shortening his career.

So why are the Reds going to finish behind the Cubs this season? It’s simple, their extra pieces have the potential to be great. I speak specifically of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. The big question will be whether or not Dusty Baker trusts these two young guns to play. Right now Corey Patterson is slated ahead of Bruce and Scott Hatteberg is ahead of Votto. The fact that Patterson and Hatteberg stink means that Votto and Bruce may force their way into the lineup before the summer based on talent alone. These two guys are projected as top 25 prospects with great bats and endless potential. Add in Johnny Cueto, another youngster, who is projected as a staff ace and you have a youth infusion that looks to prop up the Reds franchise for years to come. The big difference for the Reds is that I do trust their bullpen more than the Brewers. Francisco Cordero has been one of the more consistent closers the past few years and guys like David Weathers and Jeremy Affeldt have been consistent producers as well. The Reds get my vote based on the possibility that Votto, Bruce and Cueto all make an impact this season. If Dusty Baker is smart, he’ll get those kids in the lineup.

Final Standings in the NL Central (In order from first to last):

Wallace: Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates

Tony: Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates