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After hashing out the no-glitz Oscar Awards, I’m moving on to forecasting winners in the money award categories; those being the four acting awards, best director and picture. Getting any of this selections wrong will ruin my chances of finishing in the money of the 7th Annual Phil Wallace Oscar Pool (see Part 1 for full breakdown of rules), as these categories start off at 5 points and go up to 8 points for best picture. Overall, I see four clear cut winners among these top six Oscars, but the actress categories have me completely vexed. Leave it to the women to leave me clueless. . Again, my selected winners are listed in bold.

5 Point Categories (Supporting Acting)

The supporting actor and actress categories are the awards I enjoy most after the screenplay awards because the nominees and recipients are the most random bunch of Hollywood going usually. Most nomimee packs include everything from youngsters debuting in feature film (Anna Paquin, this year’s Saoirse Ronan) to long time character actors (Alan Arkin, Chris Cooper) and legit movie stars that need an Oscar to tidy up the legacy (Sean Connery, Angelina Jolie). Mostly, I like this category because the performances honored can be quirky, weird and different because there is not the build up here that surrounds the lead acting awards.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

I thought Bardem was the leading actor in No Country… in portraying super villain Anton Chigurh. Without giving away the movie, Bardem is the focus of the action and the real driving character throughout the film. Chigurh is also a pantheon villain, an all-time evildoer and a Halloween costume for years to come, so long as you can get his hairdo and his cow-killer tank gun (I’m sure this has a great concise name to it). Nevermind the slick accent. Below is his awesome “Friendo” scene, as both amusing and chilling a 4 minutes you’ll see in film.

As for the other contenders, I only saw Wilkinson in Michael Clayton, where he portrayed a partner at a big firm on the verge of mental breakdown and altruistic breakthrough. The only downside to this really entertaining performance was having to compete against Bardem’s all-time great role.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

I love Amy Ryan due to her association with The Wire and I think she is the best example of what this category is about. A career, strong supporting actress, Ryan takes the role of the world’s worst mother in Gone Baby Gone and really nails the dysfunctional white “southie” trash aspect of it to a tee (fyi: Boston might have the worst white trash in this whole country).

Ruby Dee scares the heck out of me as a forecaster. I really don’t want to Monday-Morning Quarterback her win as the obvious sentimental choice. Cate Blanchett, well I am banking on her leading actress candidacy draw some votes from a strong Dylan portrayal in I’m Not There. No one likes Atonement enough for Ronan to win. Swinton has the most overlooked performance of the nominees; in many other years, her portrayal of a neurotic corporate lawyer would win this award.

6 Point Categories (The Starmaker Honors)
Best Director, Actor and Actress are the real individually life changing awards in the Oscars. Winning one leads to a future of big paydays, great projects, artistic license and instant A-list status. The lucky few that win multiple are all-time American icons, with legacies and celebrity stardom that live on beyond death. Personally, I would trade a U.S. Open win (Golf or Tennis) and the Heisman Trophy to win Best Actor or Director, heck even Best Actress.

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Coen Brothers will win this award Sunday, as No Country… exemplified everything these two do best. The dialogue, as I’ve been saying, is greatly dark and quirky, the movie is shockingly violent and the overall feel of the film is appropriately uncomfortable. Noir western, sounds interseting. This also awards two filmmakers due for best director honors in the past (Barton Fink, Fargo) so the Academy will gladly take that into account.

Paul Thomas Anderson (I liked the handle, P.T., better than the formal Paul Thomas, sounds a lot slicker), made a movie I loved with There Will Be Blood, but the movie is too much about Daniel Day-Lewis to win any other awards (including Best Pic). Gilroy made an original, legal thriller (I loved Michael Clayton) in a usually stale genre. Jason Reitman’s Juno was too much about Diablo Cody’s script and Ellen Page, the star, for him to win. Given the success of Juno and his last film, Thank You For Smoking, along with his relative youth, the Academy feels as though Reitman will get his own gold man soon enough. Schnabel’s DB&B was not seen by enough people and not in English movie, two big strikes for his candidacy.

Best Actor
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

No shocker here. Daniel Day-Lewis was the favorite since he was cast in the role of Daniel Plainview, a self-made oil tycoon of the late nineteenth/early tweentieth century. Also, this was first role since Gangs of New York in 2002. Day-Lewis’ preparation for the role, in which he became Plainview was well published before the movie was even released. All he had to do was deliver on the hype to win his second Oscar (My Left Foot, 1991), and Day-Lewis presented a tour-de-force romp. Plainview was crazy, precise, charming, loatheable, brilliant, pathetic among other things. Plainview even dominates the film in his silence (as shown in the first 10 minutes) but its his leaps into insanity (like the “Milkshake” scene, below) that show how much Day-Lewis poured into Plainview.

All of the other nominees were seriously handicapped by the hype built up by Day-Lewis working for the first time in years. Again, I loved Michael Clayton, but George Clooney is merely excellent as opposed to epic. I would love to see Johnny Depp win, because his performance manages to match Day-Lewis in my opinion. The Academy though, will have a hard time voting for the lead in a musical about comically deranged barber. Not exactly the epic sex appeal as brilliant oil tycoon gone mad. Mortensen did well working with David Cronenberg for a second nominee in this category (along with an intense naked man fight in a sauna). Tommy Lee Jones is just getting an invite, no chance for the one-time supporting Oscar winner.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

I was so unsure as to who to pick here that I actually wrote up my entire Oscar’s Picks post before deciding. Everyone is saying that Julie Christie will win and as much as I want to get in line with many experts’ safe bet, I am wagering that Ellen Page will win. My odds aren’t looking great right now as many may deride Page’s performance as her playing herself, but pregnant. I think though, that the buzz around Juno (trailer below) and Page might be enough to push her to the trophy.

In Page’s defense, she does portray a mold-breaking female character. Juno isn’t the Mean Girls, bitch teenager, obsessed with gossip, “some hunk” named Brad or designer jeans. At the same time, she isn’t the Sixteen Candles “why don’t people like me?” teenage girl. She initiates the sexual act that gets her pregnant, but the hookup is not the sex kitten sundae display from Varsity Blues. Finally, when she does get pregnant, she is not the helpless teenage pity case a la Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Without getting to kitsch, not even Juno knows what kind of girl she is, mostly because she is just your smarter average sixteen year old girl.

Disclaimer: I was uncertain and wanted to go with the safe bet of Christie, but James convinced me to risk it and go with the people’s favorite, Ellen Page. So if its Page, he gets the credit and if its not, he gets the blame. Call me a coward, but thats the truth.

8 Point Category (Instant Criterion Classic Status)

The biggest award of the night, the Oscar for Best Picture evokes passion like no other Oscar. Its as though some people invest themselves in a particular movie as a personal statement about life and root for its victory as a personal one. For example, when Goodfellas lost to Dances With Wolves, it devastated Italian-Americans while greatly pleasing women who get off on historical fiction fantasies. Rooting for an indie film like Pulp Fiction or Little Miss Sunshine supports a young DIY-lifestyle while rooting for Lord of the Rings or Star Wars supports science fiction nerdom. Most importantly, these movies are instant must-see movies and remain as such well, forever.

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

No Country… will win for all the reasons that both the Coens’ and Bardem will win in their individual categories. It was subtle, well made and challenged typical conventions regarding evil, heroism and fate. I loved its humor, which is what allows this dark movie to be so enjoyable. No Country for Old Men will cause for debate from its audience but there’s little argument against it winner Sunday.

Apparently, Atonement was too British to win this award. Just as well; I don’t need another Shakespeare in Love/English Patient/Dances With Wolves-type movie winning this award. TWBB see above. Everyone roots for Juno here, but I don’t think it seems sophisticated enough to convince the Academy. Michael Clayton falls victim for not being original enough relative to the field. I still think Sweeney Todd should have been right here in the running.

Twenty-six awards, broken down, shifted through and fully prognosticated. I feel like my risks in the actress categories might sink my chance for the moneys, but if I’m right, I’ll have a speech ready to thank all of the little people that made it possible. I can only hope that I am Nostradamus enough (or perhaps Leonard Maltin enough) to get the points and then get the Moolah this Oscar Sunday.

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