The Bocker.com

As kickoff of Super Bowl XLII nears, its clear that the Patriots are expected to win the game and complete their undefeated season (note non sequitur, how odd is it that in the year of the unbeaten NFL Champ, the NCAA Champ had two losses?). Many experts have picked New England to not just win but rout the Giants and score 40-some-odd points in the process. The all important Vegas line on the game has hovered around twelve points in favor of the Pats.

Personally, I am rooting for the Giants to win for a variety of reasons, including but not exclusive to the Pats being linked to cheating, a dislike of the Belichekian coaching and an overall dislike of Boston sports. I would love to predict a Giants win tomorrow, but I lack the courage or any bit of evidence that suggests the Giants will do better than make it a game. Any arguments supporting the Giants are based on intangible factors, which are nice and better than nothing, but not as convincing as say a 18-0 record and a Hall of Fame Quarterback.

The Patriots can win tomorrow even with a subpar effort; the Giants probably need a near perfect game just to compete. That said, here are a list of game factors which must go the Giants way just for them to win. Many of these are obvious and fundamental, but these are the same factors that go the Pats way every week.

I am going to assume that the Giants will fulfill the basic requirements for winning in any football game. I am not going to dwell on points like “The Giants need to not allow turnovers” or “Eli Manning can’t have a bad game” because the Giants would lose to the Dolphins under some of these conditions. These points are what will determine the outcome in a game that Big Blue manages to keep competitive.

1. The Giants must turn their turnovers red zone chances into touchdowns, not field goals.

In the AFC Championship game, this area killed the Chargers. Otherwise, San Diego was right in this game. If their turnovers had all resulted in points, if any of their field goal opportunities had been touchdowns instead, I may be breaking down the Plaxico Burress versus Antonio Cromartie right now. But this is why the Patriots are so tough to beat; they actually do tighten up their defense in these situations. This leads to point 2….

2. Be aggressive not stupid.

Again going back to the Pats victory over the Chargers, one of the key moments in the game was a 3rd and Goal from the Pats one and a half. The Chargers ran a stretch play to the outside and Michael Turner was tackled for a two yard loss by Junior Seau. Now, the Chargers were not only without a touchdown, but they could not even attempt a 4th down from the 4. This Norv Turner-play call ended up costing the Chargers a touchdown chance and was another small coaching mistake that the Patriots never make in this situation.

If the Patriots had faced this same situation, Belichek would have given the ball to Heath Evans on a fullback dive, a very conservative play with little chance of getting blown up for a loss. Likely, the Pats score here. Equally important, the Evans play would not end up in a loss and they could go for it on 4th down.

Another example of this was in the Patriots Week 13 win over the Baltimore Ravens. No team gave the Patriots as big a challenge this season has the Ravens. Baltimore nearly ended the game several times in the 4th, but one of these blown opportunities to seize victory was a huge coaching blunder. Just before a 4th down snap on what would be New England’s winning drive, Ravens’ Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan called a timeout. The play had begun and the Ravens had stopped a Heath Evans short yardage play, but the timeout negated the play and the Pats were reborn.

I believe that against any other team, Ryan would not have called a timeout, but did so because New England scared him. If the Super Bowl is close, the Giants will have a moment like this; eschewing convention simply because they are playing the Pats will surely cost them as shown in previous cases.

3. Use Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to the fullest.

This is situational, as the Pats can score so quickly, but running well is a good way to upset the New England defense. Their strength is their mental make up, which usually is more of a factor in pass defense. Defending the run is not devoid of thinking, but it requires more of a physical effort. New England’s linebacking corp is high on experience but are somewhat slow and can be run against.

The Giants need to perfect the two-headed Bradshaw-Jacobs monster at running back. Coughlin was still figuring out how to keep the Packers off balance two weeks ago, but if Tom can master this, it could be a long day for New England.

In addition to running the ball, screen passes, which troubled New England in games versus several teams this season, most notably Indianapolis, Philly and Jacksonville, will be important for the Giants.

4. Win Special Teams.

This could mean regularly using Jeff Feagles to pin the Patriots inside their own 5, it may mean getting a couple big returns from Domenick Hixon or forcing a special teams turnover.

The Giants are not good enough in my opinion to beat the Patriots outright. Special teams is an area where a lesser team can make a big difference in a game, even turn the game around. Again, going back to Adam Vinatieri and now with special team standouts Kelley Washington and Wesley Welker, this is an area that the Pats usually win.

5. Don’t let the 4th quarter turn you scared.
The best trait of the Patriots is their ability to step up their play and employ a more aggressive strategy in the 4th quarter. In contrast, their opposition seems to become more timid and conservative, and then they lose.

In the 4th quarter of the aforementioned Chargers game, Norv Turner chose to punt the ball, facing 4th down from roughly New England’s 40 with nine minutes left. The Chargers never got the ball back.

In New England’s big midseason win versus the Colts, it was in the 4th quarter in which they made the big plays that the Colts had shutdown all day. As the Peyton Manning struggled to get time in the pocket (hint: they blitz more in the 4th quarter), Tom Brady was looking downfield to Randy Moss and quickly turned a Colts advantage into a Patriots lead and win.

This is no small task for the Giants, as the pressure moments in any game have melted the best superstars in every sport, but deciding to become overly passive in the 4th will not result in a win. If the Giants are winning at any point in the last quarter, it is because they have forced the action the Pats. To win, the Pats hand must be forced up until 00:00.

6. Play Tough.

This sounds simplistic, but in addition to teams seeming to become passive when playing New England, they also seem to get bullied around. The Pats front seven always seem to be dishing out cheap shots, be it Vince Wilfork poking the Giants’ Jacobs in the eye in Week 17 or Richard Seymour knocking Phil Rivers down after a play two weeks ago. The Pats offensive line behaves similarly in protecting Tom Brady.

Instead of whining after the game is over, use the game itself to retaliate and show the Patriots that they can not literally walk on you. I’m not saying the Giants should react to every hit with a shot that will result in a personal foul penalty, but when the situation presents itself, take advantage of it. This means roughing up the Pats D-Line with tactics such as cut blocking and finishing blocks. This means roughing up Randy Moss and Wes Welker during the whole game. And it means making every shot on Tom Brady count and then some. A solid shot on Tom Brady would be worth the likely 15-yard penalty that would result, because with hyper offensive teams, knocking out a quarterback is akin to cutting off the head of a snake; the rest of it dies.

This sounds cruel and unusual, but successful football teams have employed this mentality throughout NFL history. Teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1970s, The Giants of the 1980s (think about those career altering hits put on Joe Montana and Joe Theisman) and the 2000 Ravens (the Raiders had a great offense entering that AFC championship game, Tony Siragusa finished a hit on Rich Gannon and took Gannon out of the game). I am not saying break Tom Brady’s leg a la Theisman, but if Brady isn’t even worried about getting hit, he can take a full 10 seconds to throw a pass.

Again, the Giants can play a nice game tomorrow and lose. They are not favored by anyone and rightfully so. However, if Big Blue keeps up with New England throughout the game, they can pull off the greatest upset of all-time so long as they are tough as nails and as composed as a surgeon.